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    Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    800 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    1. Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that a
    well-defined low pressure system located about 90 miles southeast of
    Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, is acquiring more tropical
    characteristics. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
    further development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
    likely to form later today or tonight. This system is expected to
    move northeastward away from the United States and move over colder
    waters south of Nova Scotia on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for
    further development by midweek.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

    2. Showers and thunderstorms located over the Bay of Campeche are
    associated with a broad low pressure area. Gradual development of
    this disturbance is possible during the next couple of days while
    it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical depression
    could form late in the week when the system moves northward into
    the central Gulf of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy
    rainfall is possible over portions of Central America and southern
    Mexico during the next several days. Please consult products from
    your local meteorological service for more information.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

    3. A strong tropical wave just offshore of west Africa is producing
    disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some development
    of this system is possible during the next few days before a
    combination of dry air aloft and strong upper-level winds limit any
    chance of formation while the wave is over the central tropical
    Atlantic Ocean late week.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

    Forecaster Blake

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