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    ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Special Tropical Weather Outlook
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
    500 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

    For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

    Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
    the low-pressure system offshore the North Carolina coast.

    1. Updated: A well-defined, non-tropical low pressure system is
    located about 120 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina.
    Satellite and radar data indicate that thunderstorm activity has
    continued to increase and become more concentrated near the center
    of the low early this morning, and environmental conditions are
    expected to be at least marginally conducive for tropical cyclone
    formation. If this recent development trend continues, then a
    short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm could form later
    today while the system moves northeastward away from the United
    States. The low will move over colder waters south of Nova Scotia
    on Wednesday, ending any opportunity for further development.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    2. A large area of cloudiness and showers located over the Bay of
    Campeche is associated with a broad low pressure area. Some slow
    development of this disturbance is possible during the next few days
    while it meanders near the coast of Mexico, and a tropical
    depression could form late in the week when the system begins to
    move slowly northward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is
    possible over portions of Central America and southern Mexico during
    the next several days. Please consult products from your local
    meteorological service for more information.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
    * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

    Forecaster Stewart


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